Gartner Hype Cycle 2016

Its Gartner hype curve time again. Interesting to note that they too have put commercial drones on the cusp of inflated expectations.

Back in 2013, Matthew Schroyer shared his thoughts on how things might roll out. Interestingly he mentions ITAR and FAA regulation.

The International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) really held back US based companies. That problem has largely gone away now. Just about every autopilot is made in China. It is cheaper and no ITAR problems. There are made in America autopilots but the numbers sold make them non-contenders. China-based DJI sells more autopilots every month than any American vendor has produced in their companies entire history.

Gartner has for the first time to my knowledge added Commercial Drones (UAV) as a category. Breaking out from autonomous vehicles.

With the FAA rolling out Part 107 commercial drone rules at the end of this month things are about to get busy in the US drone world.

It will be much easier to operate platforms under 55lbs and vendors are lining up to oversell.

I foresee a rush to market for many people that don’t really understand what they are offering. A drone is a fantastic tool for various established experts in different fields. Inspection and surveying being around the world the most lucrative.

The people doing the best at this understand their market having already worked in it.

Getting actionable data out is easier because they know the data and tolerances the focus industry requires.

If you are entering an industry just because your software tells you there are outputs for it. Life might be harder. The only way to compete against incumbents with a drone is on price. That never works out well.

I think the trough of disillusionment will arrive faster than Gartner predict.

Masked slightly by the BS of press, several folks will be doing really well.

The Gartner Hype Cycle so far seems to be one of the better indicators to follow in the overheated drone market.