How do we integrated drones….. they are already here!
First of all, sorry to my Unmanned Systems colleagues who cringe at the term “Drone”. I did as well until recently. When the term was used in legal decisions and legislation I figured it was here to stay. But the use of the term drone is not what I am writing about, I thought I would share some slides I created for a panel discussion on unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in the National Airspace (NAS).
A few months ago I had the opportunity to conduct a detailed analysis of the state of unmanned vehicles in the United States (Thanks to my employer – The Perduco Group). That coupled with teaching a class on the Laws and Regulations regarding UAS forced me to start thinking of what could happen when UAS become available to the masses….. (Not to give it away, but little did I know it would be a month or two later this would all become reality).
So first of all, these are just numbers. Numbers that made me think…. But still just numbers.
We have all been focused on big aircraft
First of all, when we (my colleagues working in and around the Department of Defense) think about UAS we often think about traditional sized aircraft. We think about flying high in that NAS, talking with other pilots, and landing at traditional airports.
We think of how we are going to integrate a relatively small number of unmanned air vehicles with a fairly large number of manned aircraft. Gathering data from some various sites and documents I was able to come up with a number of right around 206 thousand registered air vehicles in the United States. I didn’t include gliders or hot air balloons so if you are a glider or hot air balloon pilot I apologize for leaving you out. Note: The UAS listed are US military aircraft. I included them to show the number the US has not that are flying in the NAS.
Next I looked at how many pilots are licensed to fly in the NAS. Again, I left out glider and hot air balloon pilots as well as my area of flight (Sport Pilots – approx. 5 thousand in the US). So the current number of pilots sits at around 560 thousand pilots.
Section 333 Exemption for UAS
I then began to look at UAS and until recently the number was pretty small. Up until earlier this year before the FAA announced the Section 333 exemptions allowing UAS to fly in the NAS under a certain, size, altitude, visual conditions, etc. there were only about 60 groups allowed to fly. The FAA even speculated in a report that in five years there would only be approx. 7500 UAS flying in the NAS. Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034. In their defense, the report speculated that the forecast was highly uncertain and was dependent on the regulatory structure finally adopted, and the technology and the cost structure of the industry as it evolves……… well it evolved……. And faster than many of us had planned.
Two huge events occurred nearly at the same time…… only about four to five months ago. The regulatory structure finally allowed for limited flights and the technology and the cost structure of the industry changed significantly. So we already mentioned the Section 333 exemptions. There has been lots of information already posted on that decision. We have a great page on the exemption. Below is the most recent information including a map of the approved organizations.
The price of admission has changed
The second event that occurred is that the price of admission has changed. In the past to become a pilot was a costly endeavor. To become a pilot is a huge cost and time commitment. Most people end up spending no less than $5-10 thousand dollars and months if not years of time studying and flying. A private pilot is required to have 40 hours of flight time. That in reality ends up being 60+ hours. Add the price of the aircraft, instructor time, etc. and the price adds up quick. Then you are just able to fly a plane. You don’t own one… that is another story but let us just say… it isn’t inexpensive.
Now how about UAS. In the early days, UAS cost millions of dollars. Up until fairly recently, to get a UAS that you could fly without spending 100s of hours practicing with a good camera and accessories you were still in $50 thousand dollar range.
Fast forward to earlier this year. More than a few companies have come out with some amazing aircraft at very competitive prices. At $1,300 dollars retailers are seeing these vehicles fly off the shelf (No pun intended). We will soon see capable platforms at $150 dollars. In those cases we will see millions in user’s hands.
Now I know what you are thinking…. These are toys. How can a toy replace an aircraft……
They are very capable systems that have auto takeoff and landing, fly way points, and in some cases have 4K video. They may be toys and for hobbyists but they are very capable platforms. For those reasons and because it is the only choice for people who want to get in the air (other than several thousands of dollars for flight training or to rent an aircraft) we will see them used in greater numbers.
Take estate agents for instance. There is a ton of interest in aerial photography. Not every sales person will pack their car with a $1,300 drone but a pocket sized $150.00 one that they can throw in the air and take a few pictures…… I see that happening in large numbers.
True some of these are probably small hobbyist but with those numbers there is the opportunity that within the next few years there will be more UAS flying in the NAS then manned aircraft.
Sure people will say “Well I fly above X thousand feet and these things fly low”. My response is “You have to take off and land somewhere.”
Again, I’m not trying to paint a picture of doom and gloom. I just didn’t realize that there were so few planes and pilots compared to the potential sales and use of UAS. All of this potential makes me excited about the future. These small vehicles are only going to get better and better while finding more and more uses both recreationally and commercially. Plus, have you seen first person drone racing? Mine is already on order….
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